Science
PARIS : Sun’s Upcoming Peak of Sunspot and Solar Flare Activity Could Set Records
PARIS : The current solar cycle is intensifying with the expected peak of the cycle still one to three years away.
Why it matters
This cycle — Solar Cycle 25 — was expected to be weaker than average, but some scientists now say it could actually be among the most active since recordkeeping started in the 1700s.
What’s next
Sunspot and solar flare activity, which can disrupt communications and electrical systems on Earth, will increase until a peak sometime between 2023 and 2025.
There are early signs that we could be in for a wild space weather ride in the next few years. As the sun builds toward its next solar maximum, its surface grows unsettled with more sunspots, each with the potential to unleash solar flares and coronal mass ejections that can disrupt communications and electrical systems on Earth.
The sun reaches its solar maximum, or the point of the most intense sunspot activity, during part of the 11-year solar cycle that astronomers have been tracking since the mid-1700s. The last solar maximum in 2013-2014 was very muted, and scientists had predicted another quiet peak for this cycle, which is dubbed Solar Cycle 25. But with the next maximum still a year or more away, this cycle is already exceeding expectations for activity and may even be the most intense period we’ve seen on the sun since recordkeeping began.
“The sun’s activity has quickly ramped up and even though we haven’t reached peak levels in this cycle, the sun’s activity is already exceeding predictions,” Nicola Fox, rector of NASA’s Heliophysics Division, said on the space agency’s Solar Cycle blog. “Solar events will continue to increase as we near solar maximum in 2025, and our lives and technology on Earth, as well as satellites and astronauts in space, will be impacted.”
Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019 and will build to a peak of sunspot activity between 2023 and 2025 before falling off to a solar minimum about five years later when the sun will likely be completely blank and devoid of sunspots for a time. Then, the cycle starts again.
At the start of this cycle, forecasters were split on how Solar Cycle 25 would play out.
The official prediction put out by NOAA and NASA in 2020 foresaw a weaker-than-average cycle, similar to Cycle 24. But not all the experts were in agreement. Around the same time, a study led by Scott McIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research was published in the journal Solar Physics.
Space weather impacts the Earth’s ionosphere in this animation.
NASA/GSFC/CIL/Krystofer Kim
In stark contrast to the consensus forecast, McIntosh and colleagues predicted that Solar Cycle 25 “could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began.”
The first half of 2022 saw sunspot and solar flare activity on the sun increase significantly, including some of the most powerful flares seen in several years. With the predicted maximum still a few years off, it seems that things are trending toward the McIntosh prediction of a more active solar cycle peak.
A new study out of Russia also predicts that this cycle could be among the most active ever and also suggests that maximum activity could come as soon as late 2023.
The disagreement illustrates how much more there is to learn about the sun’s behavior.
“Scientists have struggled to predict both the length and the strength of sunspot cycles because we lack a fundamental understanding of the mechanism that drives the cycle,” McIntosh said in 2020.
Studying how this cycle plays out could help cultivate that understanding, but it also threatens to disrupt our society on a scale never quite seen before.
If the upcoming solar maximum truly is one for the record books, it will come at a time when our presence in orbit and our reliance on satellite communications has grown exponentially.
Early this year, SpaceX reported losing a number of its Starlink satellites to an extended geomagnetic storm of moderate strength.
Previous solar maximums also caused some havoc on the ground with major impacts on the electrical grid, and little has been done to harden these systems or build in redundancies over the past two decades.
There is one possible silver lining, at least for some scientists: If this solar maximum temporarily disables our electrical and communications systems, it will also generate epic auroral displays.
Science
SAN FRANCISCO: Indian-Origin Founder Unveils Wearable Device That Records Every Moment Of Your Life
SAN FRANCISCO: Advait Paliwal, an Indian-origin entrepreneur, has recently introduced a wearable AI device called Iris, designed to provide users with “infinite memory.” According to Paliwal, the device captures “pictures every minute,” which are stored either on the device or in the cloud, allowing users to preserve life’s small moments and recognize patterns often overlooked.
In a series of tweets, Mr Paliwal, who is based in San Francisco, explained that Iris not only organises the photos into a timeline but also uses AI to generate captions and help users recall forgotten details. Additionally, the device features a “focus mode,” which detects when the wearer is distracted and offers reminders to refocus.
Mr. Paliwal shared that the design of Iris is inspired by the evil eye symbol. He developed the device over the summer at the Augmentation Lab in Cambridge, part of a two-month AI and hardware talent accelerator program. After the program, Mr Paliwal presented Iris to over 250 attendees at the MIT Media Lab, where he received positive feedback, with many expressing interest in owning the device.
Highlighting its potential, Mr Paliwal suggested that Iris could offer safety and health benefits, such as aiding doctors in understanding patients’ daily habits or ensuring workplace safety compliance. In elderly care, the device could help caregivers monitor patients without being intrusive.
However, after Mr Paliwal shared his post on X (formerly Twitter), reactions were mixed. While some users expressed excitement, others raised privacy concerns. One person commented, “It’s an interesting concept, but I wouldn’t want to interact with someone wearing this, taking a photo every minute.” Paliwal responded by pointing out that people are already “constantly taking mental photos.”
Others were more enthusiastic, with one user noting, “I’ve been searching for a device like this for years! A picture every minute should be enough if it archives, organizes, labels, and retrieves them.” Another user praised the concept, saying, “Love the idea. The design and name are perfect. Great work!”
Science
TEXAS: Meet Gopi Thotakura, Indian Who Will Soon Go To The Edge Of Outer Space
TEXAS: In an unprecedented leap towards the stars, pilot Gopichand Thotakura is set to become the first Indian to venture into space as a tourist. Selected as part of the elite crew for Blue Origin’s New Shephard-25 (NS-25) mission, Mr Thotakura will make a journey beyond the Earth’s atmosphere along with five other candidates.
Gopichand Thotakura, an entrepreneur and pilot, joins a distinguished lineup of 31 candidates who have flown beyond the Karman line, the boundary between Earth’s atmosphere and outer space.
A connoisseur of the skies since his youth, Mr Thotakura’s passion for flight saw him defy conventional norms, learning to pilot aircraft before mastering the art of driving. To further his passion, he graduated from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University with a Bachelor of Science in Aeronautical Science.
Describing him, Blue Origins wrote, “Gopi is a pilot and aviator who learned how to fly before he could drive. Gopi pilots bush, aerobatic, and seaplanes, as well as gliders and hot air balloons, and has served as an international medical jet pilot. A lifelong traveler, his most recent adventure took him to the summit of Mt. Kilimanjaro.”
Born in Vijayawada, the 30-year-old currently runs Preserve Life Corp, a global center for holistic wellness and applied health located near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport
Each member of the NS-25 mission will carry a postcard on behalf of Blue Origin’s foundation, Club for the Future, symbolizing the collective dreams and aspirations of young minds worldwide.
From an environmental standpoint, the NS-25 mission heralds a new era of sustainability in space exploration.
“Nearly 99% of New Shepard’s dry mass is reused, including the booster, capsule, engine, landing gear, and parachutes. New Shepard’s engine is fueled by highly efficient liquid oxygen and hydrogen. During flight, the only byproduct is water vapor with no carbon emissions,” Blue Origins said in their statement.
The launch date for the mission is yet to be announced.
The mission also includes former Air Force Captain Ed Dwight, who was selected by US President John F Kennedy in 1961 as the country’s first Black astronaut candidate but was never granted the opportunity to fly to space.
Blue Origin has carried out six crewed flights — some passengers were paying customers and others were guests — since July 2021, when CEO Jeff Bezos himself took part in the first.
The company is also developing a heavy rocket for commercial purposes called New Glenn, with the maiden flight planned for next year.
This rocket, which measures 98 meters (320 feet) high, is designed to carry payloads of as much as 45 metric tons into low Earth orbit.
Science
WASHINGTON: Who Is Aroh Barjatya, Indian-Origin Researcher Who Led Recent NASA Mission
WASHINGTON: Aroh Barjatya, an India-born researcher, led NASA’s mission that launched sounding rockets during the recent total solar eclipse.
The US space agency launched three sounding rockets during the total solar eclipse on April 8 to study what happens to the Earth’s upper atmosphere when sunlight dims momentarily over a part of the planet.
Who Is Aroh Barjatya?
A professor of engineering physics, Aroh Barjatya directs the Space and Atmospheric Instrumentation Lab at the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Florida.
Born to a chemical engineer, Ashok Kumar Barjatya, and his wife Rajeshwari, Aroh Barjatya went to schools across India, including in Patalganga near Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Pilani, and Solapur.
He went on to get a degree in electronics engineering from Solapur’s Walchand Institute of Technology.
In 2021, he moved to the US for a master’s degree in electrical engineering at Utah State University. He later did his PhD in spacecraft instrumentation from the same university.
“In addition to leading an externally funded research enterprise, as a tenured faculty I have mentored and engaged young minds through inquiry-based learning tactics, created a new area of concentration within the Engineering Physics programme at ERAU… My mission is to advance the state of the art in space research and education and to inspire the next generation of space engineers and scientists,” he wrote on his LinkedIn profile.
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