Business
LONDON: UK economy- A crisis in the making for some time, with India trade deal offering hope
LONDON: It has been anything but a smooth ride for the Rishi Sunak led UK government, with the latest official data released this week reflecting a shrinking economy and a looming two-year-long recession.
The British Indian former finance minister, who took charge at 10 Downing Street last month with the promise to fix the fiscal errors of predecessor Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget, has pledged to get a grip on the soaring inflation as a priority and warned of tough tax and spending decisions ahead.
Economic experts agree on the massive scale of the challenge, even as they hold out the prospect of a free trade agreement (FTA) with India as a potential generator of much-needed economic growth.
“The economic crisis in the UK is caused by some new and some longstanding factors,” explains Dr Anna Valero, Senior Policy Fellow at the London School of Economics (LSE) Centre for Economic Performance.
“High inflation, high interest rates and tightening fiscal policy occurs against the backdrop of particularly poor productivity growth in the UK since the financial crisis which has been a drag on real wages,” she says.
“There are also large and persistent inequalities in the UK. Combined, poor growth and high inequalities have made the UK a ‘Stagnation Nation’, in urgent need of a new economic strategy to move the country onto a stronger, fairer and more sustainable growth path,” she adds.
Asked how an India-UK FTA might impact this scenario, the analyst welcomed the fact that Sunak was committed to an agreement.
“Such a deal could generate growth opportunities for the UK, particularly if there is potential to export services – the UK’s key area of comparative advantage – to a market that is expected to grow significantly over time,” she notes.
The energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen as a dominating factor behind Britain’s current cost-of-living crisis of mounting household bills. A weak post-COVID recovery, hangover effect of the uncertainties of Brexit since the UK left the European Union (EU) in 2016 and years of underinvestment as a result of austerity in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash stand out as the key ingredients behind today’s mess.
“Long before the current crisis the UK economy was suffering from too little investment, economic inequality both between and within its regions, and resulting low growth,” says Dr George Dibb, head of the Centre for Economic Justice at London-based think tank Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
“This was compounded by the recent decade of ‘austerity’, which meant cuts that hit ordinary families and degraded the education and health services that are the building block of any flourishing economy.
“Things were made worse again by the huge impact on energy prices of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the resulting cost of living crisis that has provoked; and the final straw that broke the camel’s back was the Truss government’s recent mini-budget and its proposed unfunded tax cuts, which undermined market confidence in both the UK government and the economy,” he reflects.
In his view, the constant churn of new prime ministers and governments with regularly changing agendas has made business decision-making even more challenging and the need of the hour is a period of stability with a plan that will deliver on the growth agenda as the Sunak government prepares to table the crucial Autumn Budget Statement next week.
“There are reports that the government is planning to scrap the dividend tax allowance, but that would be only a small step in the right direction, and we think it should go further and start taxing dividends at the same rate as income tax. Not only would this raise billions more to help support households and businesses, it would also end the injustice that working people pay a higher tax on their income than shareholders,” adds Dr Dibb.
The City of London Corporation, which makes up the financial heart of the UK capital, also urged the government to focus on boosting growth and investment.
“Levelling up must include all parts of the UK – including London – as the capital’s success benefits every corner of the country,” says Policy Chair Chris Howard.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Britain’s independent economic research institute, also calls for a focus on such an equitable growth agenda in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict induced “terms of trade” shock where the cost of imports – food and energy in particular – has risen sharply relative to the value of exports.
“The Prime Minister needs to focus on enabling poorer households to cope with these shocks, while at the same time ensuring that there is a clear plan for stabilising the public finances in the medium term,” says Hailey Low, NIESR Associate Economist.
She also views an India-UK FTA with positivity as the ongoing negotiations run into the new year. As the fifth largest economy in the world, India is situated at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region which adds to the attractiveness of such a free trade pact.
“The FTA with India will lead to increased exports, strengthen the UK trade position, and diversify trade routes, making supply chains more resilient and less vulnerable to political developments. In a bid to revive the UK’s manufacturing industry, it will give the UK accessibility to cheaper raw materials for manufacturing outside of the EU,” notes Low.
Business
NEW YORK: H1B Visa “Thing Of Past”: Union Minister Piyush Goyal After US Visit
NEW YORK: Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, declared that the H1B visa issue is now “a thing of the past” during a meeting at Vanijya Bhavan, New Delhi.
He emphasized that the topic would no longer be a point of discussion in international dialogues, marking a shift in focus towards other areas of economic and strategic partnerships.
Minister Goyal’s recent visit to the United States included a two-day stay in New York, where he met with CEOs of major companies to discuss reforms initiated by the Modi government aimed at boosting foreign investments in India, particularly in the pharmaceutical and diamond sectors.
Surat, a prominent hub for the diamond industry, was highlighted as a key region for such investments. Goyal met around thirty business leaders who have already established ventures in India, signalling continued interest in expanding business operations in the country.
Following his engagements in New York, the Minister travelled to Washington, where he had a luncheon meeting with 17 CEOs from the CEO forum, including Tata Sons’ top executive.
The discussions primarily centred on restructuring the forum, as the terms of several members are set to expire in December. Various Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were also signed during the visit, underscoring the commitment to deepening business ties.
The visit also involved meetings with Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), think tanks, educators, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Goyal described this visit as different from previous trips, noting that there were no “negative agendas” on the table, reflecting a more positive outlook towards Indo-US relations.
Discussions extended beyond traditional sectors, covering potential partnerships in critical areas such as clean energy development, technology transfer, digital telecommunications, and defence.
Talks on biosciences have been ongoing, though Goyal noted that progress on biofuels was limited due to the upcoming US elections.
There were also conversations about setting a stable exchange rate between the Indian rupee and the US dollar, which could benefit bilateral trade.
Tourism and the development of the digital economy were also focal points during his meetings. Goyal’s engagements at the CEO forum and with the CA forum aimed to showcase India’s evolving business landscape and ongoing economic reforms, positioning the country as an attractive destination for global investment.
Business
LONDON: Focus On UK Visas For Indians As Tory Leadership Contest Enters Last Leg
LONDON: The two frontrunners in the race to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader and take his place in the House of Commons as Leader of the Opposition have thrown the spotlight on cutting immigration into the UK, with visas for Indians being singled out in heated debates.
Against the backdrop of the launch of the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham on Sunday, former immigration minister Robert Jenrick singled out India as one of the countries that should be subjected to tough visa restrictions across all categories unless it takes back its nationals who enter Britain illegally.
His closest contender, shadow housing secretary Kemi Badenoch, has also zeroed in on the same issue and condemned new migrants bringing their disputes from India to cause unrest on the streets of the country.
“It is quite clear that there are many people who have recently come to this country who have brought views from their countries of origin that have no place here,” Badenoch told the BBC.
“I saw as equalities minister people bringing cultural disputes from India to the streets of Leicester… we need to make sure that when people come to this country, they leave their previous differences behind. This is not a controversial thing to say,” she said.
Nigerian-heritage Badenoch, considered among the favourites to win the ongoing Tory leadership election, was apparently referencing the clashes that broke out in Leicester in September 2022 in the wake of an India-Pakistan Asia Cup cricket match.
Meanwhile, her former ministerial colleague Robert Jenrick who has notched up an early lead in the contest told ‘The Daily Telegraph’ earlier this week that while India benefited from 250,000 visas in the past year, there were as many as 100,000 Indian nationals estimated to be illegally residing in the UK.
He lamented that deportations or removals to India remain stuck in the hundreds despite an India-UK Migration and Mobility Partnership which is designed to cover such returns of illegal migrants.
“The government must stop other countries exploiting our generosity by imposing severe visa restrictions and restricting foreign aid to countries that do not take back their nationals here illegally,” said Jenrick.
Over the four-day Tory conference starting on Sunday, Jenrick and Badenoch will go head-to-head with two other party colleagues – former Cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat – as they make their leadership pitches before MPs vote in the next round. This time the field will be whittled down to the final two candidates who will then fight it out for the online ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership, many of whom will be making up their minds during the party conference. The new Conservative Party chief and Opposition Leader is then scheduled to be declared on November 2 after the voting closes.
The election follows the resignation of Sunak as Tory leader in the wake of the party’s bruising general election defeat in July under his leadership. The British Indian politician, who was re-elected member of Parliament from Richmond and Northallerton in northern England, has meanwhile been serving as interim leader until his successor is elected.
Business
ATHENS: Indian Investors Rush To Buy Houses In Greece Under Golden Visa Scheme
ATHENS: Greece has witnessed a remarkable 37 per cent surge in property purchases by Indian investors between July and August. This flurry of activity is driven by Indian buyers eager to secure permanent residency under Greece’s Golden Visa Programme before significant regulatory changes took effect on September 1.
Launched in 2013, Greece’s Golden Visa programme offers residency permits in exchange for property investments, making it an attractive option for non-EU citizens. Its initial €250,000 (Rs 2.2 crore) threshold was one of Europe’s lowest, drawing significant investment and boosting Greece’s real estate market.
However, the surge in demand pushed up property prices, particularly in high-demand areas like Athens, Thessaloniki, Mykonos and Santorini. To address this, the Greek government raised the investment threshold to €800,000 (approx Rs 7 crore) for properties in these regions, effective September 1 2024.
Sanjay Sachdev, Global Marketing Director of Leptos Estates, noted an “unprecedented rush” of Indian homebuyers in recent months. “Many investors purchased under-construction projects with handover periods of six-twelve months,” said Sanjay Sachdev, as per MoneyControl.
Many invested in properties under construction, with completion timelines of six to twelve months. Leptos Estates reported selling out its available residential stock in Greece due to this surge.
Effective September 2024, the revised Golden Visa programme seeks to:
– Temper rapid price increases
– Promote equitable development
– Direct investment towards less saturated areas
The appeal of Greece’s Golden Visa Programme for Indian investors
– Greece offers attractive rental yields of 3-5 per cent annually, making property investments financially rewarding.
– Property values in Greece have been increasing at an impressive rate of 10 per cent year-on-year, with significant growth following the pandemic.
– Investors gain access to high-quality healthcare, education, and the opportunity to establish businesses within the EU.
Before the rule changes, Indian investors gravitated towards popular Greek islands like Paros, Crete, and Santorini for property purchases.
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